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| China Electrolytic Aluminium Industry Report, 2007 |
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The global Aluminium consumption grows strongly and can basically digest the increased output: the global Aluminium consumption in 2006 was higher than the expectation again with the increase of 8.0%, and the gap between supply and demand was 490 thousand tons. And China was still the most important driver in the global Aluminium consumption growth with the growth rate of 22.6%. The increase of consumption in China is reflected by the fields like construction, electric power and transportation and so on.
In is predicted that there will be only small surplus of primary Aluminium in the world in 2007 and 2008: about 390 and 110 thousand tons, which means the increase of global Aluminium inventories will be quite limited in future two years. At present, the period that the global Aluminium inventories can be supplied to consumption is just 5.9 weeks, which is far lower than the average level of 9.3 weeks in the past 30 years. And once the consumption growth surpasses the expectation, the inventories will be reduced furthermore and shape a great support to Aluminium price. In the future two years, the decrease rate of the Aluminium oxide price will be quite limited and it is hard to fall below 3000 Yuan/Ton in 2007. Along with the increase of the output of China Aluminium oxide, the dependency on import Aluminium ores has been pricked up drastically; it is predicted that the external dependency in 2008 will be increased to 47.3%. And at present, the imported Aluminium ores in China are mainly from Indonesia. 1. Analysis on Prospect of Global Aluminium Consumption
1.1. Aluminium is an important raw material of basic industry 1.2. The growth potential of China Aluminium consumption is huge 1.3. The substitution of Aluminium to other nonferrous metals is emerging 2. Analysis on China Electrolytic Aluminium Industry 2.1. The output of primary Aluminium keeps on increasing rapidly 2.2. The macro control of the state on electrolytic Aluminium industry is still lasting 3. Analysis on China Aluminium Oxide Industry 3.1. Domestic Aluminium oxide output is still increasing rapidly 3.2. The price of Aluminium oxide is hard to decrease a lot 4. Analysis on Supply of Aluminium Ores 4.1. The global Aluminium ore resources are abundant 4.2. The supply of Aluminium ores in China still has hidden troubles 5. Analysis on Aluminium Price 5.1. The production cost of primary Aluminium increases greatly 5.2. The consumption still maintains rapid growth 5.3. The inventory is hard to be enhanced greatly 6. Analysis on Key Enterprises 6.1 Jiaozuo Wanfang 6.2 Yunnan Aluminium 6.3 Shenhuo Coal Industry 6.4 Nanshan Aluminium 6.5 Baotou Aluminium 6.6 Zhongfu Industry 6.7 Aluminium Corporation of China Limited |
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